Important dates:
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 7 | 7.7 | 11.8% | 83 | 0.72% |
| 10-19 | 11 | 8.4 | 11.8% | 83 | 0.61% |
| 20-29 | 32 | 16.0 | 21.4% | 151 | 0.72% |
| 30-39 | 15 | 11.6 | 17.8% | 125 | 0.92% |
| 40-49 | 20 | 9.9 | 13.8% | 97 | 0.93% |
| 50-59 | 10 | 6.0 | 8.7% | 61 | 0.49% |
| 60-69 | 10 | 6.4 | 9.8% | 69 | 0.6% |
| 70+ | 4 | 2.4 | 4.8% | 34 | 0.32% |
| All ages | 109 | 68.6 | 100% | 704 | 0.67% |
| DATEnew | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 16 | 19831 | 66369 | 602 | 155 | 747 |
| Dec 17 | 19903 | 66471 | 605 | 158 | 774 |
| Dec 18 | 19965 | 66516 | 605 | 158 | 723 |
| Dec 19 | 19966 | 66542 | 605 | 158 | 597 |
| Dec 20 | 20029 | 66603 | 605 | 161 | 568 |
| Dec 21 | 20114 | 66716 | 605 | 161 | 595 |
| Dec 22 | 20223 | 66805 | 606 | 161 | 704 |
| DATEnew | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 16 | 13272 | 38650 | 568 | 136 | 587 |
| Dec 17 | 13361 | 38698 | 573 | 137 | 612 |
| Dec 18 | 13392 | 38714 | 573 | 137 | 606 |
| Dec 19 | 13397 | 38733 | 573 | 137 | 541 |
| Dec 20 | 13476 | 38766 | 579 | 138 | 516 |
| Dec 21 | 13517 | 38837 | 582 | 138 | 537 |
| Dec 22 | 13594 | 38873 | 584 | 139 | 605 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 18 | 9.0 | 13.1% | 79 | 1.02% |
| 10-19 | 12 | 5.9 | 11.6% | 70 | 0.83% |
| 20-29 | 6 | 6.3 | 11.9% | 72 | 1.01% |
| 30-39 | 8 | 11.0 | 17.9% | 108 | 1.28% |
| 40-49 | 16 | 9.6 | 15.5% | 94 | 1.21% |
| 50-59 | 6 | 6.0 | 10.1% | 61 | 0.63% |
| 60-69 | 6 | 6.1 | 11.9% | 72 | 0.86% |
| 70+ | 5 | 4.1 | 8.1% | 49 | 0.69% |
| All ages | 77 | 58.0 | 100% | 605 | 0.94% |
| DATEnew | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 16 | 10196 | 25717 | 447 | 108 | 325 |
| Dec 17 | 10215 | 25750 | 451 | 108 | 303 |
| Dec 18 | 10243 | 25772 | 451 | 108 | 280 |
| Dec 19 | 10259 | 25782 | 451 | 108 | 228 |
| Dec 20 | 10274 | 25799 | 452 | 113 | 199 |
| Dec 21 | 10295 | 25862 | 454 | 114 | 199 |
| Dec 22 | 10316 | 25884 | 457 | 114 | 199 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 1 | 1.1 | 5% | 10 | 0.18% |
| 10-19 | 2 | 2.3 | 11.6% | 23 | 0.42% |
| 20-29 | 5 | 3.6 | 15.1% | 30 | 0.66% |
| 30-39 | 2 | 3.6 | 18.6% | 37 | 0.68% |
| 40-49 | 2 | 2.4 | 14.1% | 28 | 0.56% |
| 50-59 | 2 | 2.3 | 13.1% | 26 | 0.38% |
| 60-69 | 4 | 3.0 | 13.1% | 26 | 0.41% |
| 70+ | 3 | 2.3 | 9.5% | 19 | 0.3% |
| All ages | 21 | 20.6 | 100% | 199 | 0.44% |
| DATEnew | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 16 | 21046 | 78088 | 788 | 139 | 852 |
| Dec 17 | 21106 | 78256 | 790 | 139 | 854 |
| Dec 18 | 21165 | 78283 | 792 | 139 | 824 |
| Dec 19 | 21191 | 78299 | 792 | 139 | 682 |
| Dec 20 | 21257 | 78529 | 795 | 139 | 615 |
| Dec 21 | 21421 | 78739 | 796 | 139 | 711 |
| Dec 22 | 21507 | 78958 | 798 | 139 | 771 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 9 | 8.7 | 11.2% | 86 | 0.73% |
| 10-19 | 12 | 11.4 | 15.6% | 120 | 0.72% |
| 20-29 | 25 | 17.1 | 20.6% | 159 | 0.75% |
| 30-39 | 20 | 15.6 | 19.2% | 148 | 1.09% |
| 40-49 | 9 | 9.7 | 12.8% | 99 | 0.73% |
| 50-59 | 5 | 9.0 | 11.4% | 88 | 0.62% |
| 60-69 | 4 | 3.9 | 6% | 46 | 0.32% |
| 70+ | 2 | 2.6 | 3.2% | 25 | 0.19% |
| All ages | 86 | 78.0 | 100% | 771 | 0.65% |
| DATEnew | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 16 | 67323 | 448854 | 2161 | 399 | 3212 |
| Dec 17 | 67817 | 449613 | 2174 | 401 | 3527 |
| Dec 18 | 67938 | 450076 | 2174 | 401 | 3410 |
| Dec 19 | 68061 | 450226 | 2174 | 401 | 3227 |
| Dec 20 | 68574 | 450594 | 2186 | 402 | 3315 |
| Dec 21 | 68952 | 451459 | 2196 | 404 | 3646 |
| Dec 22 | 69402 | 451990 | 2199 | 406 | 4061 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 50 | 32.4 | 10.1% | 411 | 0.68% |
| 10-19 | 84 | 53.6 | 13.2% | 538 | 0.76% |
| 20-29 | 130 | 106.9 | 25.1% | 1020 | 0.98% |
| 30-39 | 73 | 70.4 | 18.9% | 768 | 1% |
| 40-49 | 44 | 54.7 | 14.5% | 590 | 0.9% |
| 50-59 | 30 | 33.0 | 9.5% | 386 | 0.59% |
| 60-69 | 24 | 18.0 | 5.2% | 212 | 0.39% |
| 70+ | 15 | 11.0 | 3.3% | 136 | 0.28% |
| All ages | 450 | 379.9 | 100% | 4061 | 0.74% |
| DATEnew | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 16 | 1054191 | 3768748 | 52220 | 10667 | 46086 |
| Dec 17 | 1058381 | 3774462 | 52549 | 10763 | 46192 |
| Dec 18 | 1060052 | 3778260 | 52576 | 10763 | 42751 |
| Dec 19 | 1061618 | 3780182 | 52579 | 10763 | 37524 |
| Dec 20 | 1066544 | 3783716 | 52812 | 10851 | 36207 |
| Dec 21 | 1072270 | 3792604 | 53020 | 10894 | 40341 |
| Dec 22 | 1078491 | 3798917 | 53216 | 10958 | 44862 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 578 | 438.7 | 11.1% | 4958 | 0.77% |
| 10-19 | 922 | 608.1 | 14.4% | 6466 | 0.85% |
| 20-29 | 1254 | 732.9 | 16.3% | 7333 | 0.97% |
| 30-39 | 1070 | 744.9 | 17.7% | 7928 | 1.05% |
| 40-49 | 881 | 585.7 | 14% | 6280 | 0.9% |
| 50-59 | 734 | 507.0 | 12.4% | 5551 | 0.68% |
| 60-69 | 470 | 336.7 | 8.5% | 3791 | 0.5% |
| 70+ | 308 | 220.7 | 5.7% | 2546 | 0.4% |
| All ages | 6221 | 4175.7 | 100% | 44862 | 0.77% |
Estimated recovery time from health experts varies between 10-20 days, with a nontrivial proportion of cases being long-term / on-going:
Various 7-day average trends
Comment: Why a 7-day moving average? Wisconsin tends to have cyclical patterns in testing results, with low spots typically on Mondays (this may be due to lower testing on weekends)
Source: Minnesota’s safe learning plan is very direct, very precise, with scientific basis. Determined on a local level.
Definitions (corresponding / similar to MN plan):
and a set of SUGGESTED GUIDELINES based on the Minnesota reference:
| Criteria 2wk | Criteria 2wk20s | Criteria daily7 | Suggestion |
|---|---|---|---|
| > 25 | > 30 | – | urge extra caution |
| > 28 | > 45* | decreasing | consider staying home and watching class recordings (rather than attending in-person) and visit online OH |
| > 28 | > 45* | steady to increasing | strongly encouraged to stay home and watch class recordings (attend in-person only as absolutely needed) and visit online OH. |
| > 30 | > 50 | decreasing | ’’ ’’ ’’ |
| > 30 | > 50 | steady to increasing | based on the cited criteria from Minnesota, safety of in-person classes no longer seems supportable |
*adjusted to reflect a corresponding proportion of the top cut-off.
Important Resources:
I devised plots that are similar to those found, for example, at the following locations:
Masks Should I wear a mask in enclosed public spaces? Unequivocally, YES. References for reasoning, using a current (as of July 8) accumulation of over 70 references. A few of my favorites (modeling-wise) are:
A couple more in the works:
Media articles / letters summarizing scientific publications:
Predicting cumulative deaths in state
[1] "The number of cumulative deaths, at a lag of 21 days, are approximately 1.5 times number of cumulative cases to the 0.64 power."
[1] "We thus predict that on 2022-01-14 the cumulative number of deaths in WI will be 10546"
Comparing county-wide active case rates in counties with colleges